Weather, sleep, pain, hormones, a surprise construction crew, and a string of close encounters can all affect your dog's capacity. One great walk does not mean they are ready for a crowded festival, and one hard walk does not erase their progress.
Choose the route that gives your dog the best chance to succeed today. Then celebrate the small wins: a soft body, a curious sniff, a calm glance, a successful turn away. Those moments are how safer walks become a more confident life outdoors.